[QUOTE][QUOTENAME]HistoryGirl wrote: [/QUOTENAME]I agree with Microwave, but for a completely different reason.
His reasons first: He has a point with the Muslim one...that might be a big hang up. But I think a black male will be elected before a female.
But Obama will not be the next president for one reason: his lack of political experience.
Granted some see this as refreshing and meaning he's less corrupt **cough BS cough** but like it or not most people in this country agree that we are in a damn big mess...even Republicans are starting to agree with that (FINALLY!). Most people want a confident, experienced politician to pull us out of this mess, because they aren't willing to hand over the reigns to someone without the experience in a time like this. Maybe if we weren't in such a dung heap more people would be open to the idea as there is farther to fall before you have to start getting worried. But as we have lost a significant amount of that "cushion" in the last two terms, most people just want to get out and back up to where we were without taking a chance on someone who has no experience. Like it or not, Hilary has the experience. [/QUOTE]
Let's be honest here.
Giuliani is bound to win the Republican ticket, I don't see any other candidate who stands a chance. It would've been McCain, but he committed suicide by continuing to support the war. Giuliani is a Catholic, and he's surrounded by intrige and scandals. And let's not forget that Kennedy is the only Catholic to ever become US president, and probably so with help of the maffia. "Mayor of the nation" perhaps, but I don't seem many Americans wanting him.
Then there's Hillary. She's a Clinton, which will gain her some support, but which'll make the entire South secede (again) when elected president.
Barrack Obama is, IMHO, the best candidate idea-wise, Hillary Clinton tactically speaking. However, I don't see the majority of Americans voting for a woman or a black man, and I don't believe they'll much like a Catholic either.
I don't feel sure enough to predict anyone as the "most likely candidate to win", but I will say this: I would be very much mistaken if the upcoming elections wouldn't have third-party candidates getting more votes than ever (though never enough to win the presidency).
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[QUOTE][QUOTENAME]<b><font color = "crimson"> ThomasQuinn wrote: [/QUOTENAME]
"Mayor of the nation" perhaps, but I don't seem many Americans wanting him.
[/QUOTE]
For the record, not many New Yorkers want him either.
"Mayor of the nation" perhaps, but I don't seem many Americans wanting him.
[/QUOTE]
For the record, not many New Yorkers want him either.
[QUOTE][QUOTENAME]magicalfreddiemercury wrote: [/QUOTENAME][QUOTE][QUOTENAME]<b><font color = "crimson"> ThomasQuinn wrote: [/QUOTENAME]
"Mayor of the nation" perhaps, but I don't seem many Americans wanting him.
[/QUOTE]
For the record, not many New Yorkers want him either.
[/QUOTE]
Can't really blame them. Though, I must admit, he did handle 9/11 decently. Much more so than the federal government.
"Mayor of the nation" perhaps, but I don't seem many Americans wanting him.
[/QUOTE]
For the record, not many New Yorkers want him either.
[/QUOTE]
Can't really blame them. Though, I must admit, he did handle 9/11 decently. Much more so than the federal government.
^^ I actually agree with you on a few things, Caspar. First off, it's a no brainer that Guiliani will get the Repubican nod...he's still a hero to many people for the way he handled 9-11 and he's cenrist enough in his party (pro-choice even) that he won't alienate the people who would normally not think of voting Republican.
However, all of this amounts to nothing, because the Republicans will not win this election. They shouldn't even bother running a candidate, because there is no possible way that the nation will elect another Republican. The Democrats have this election locked up, all they have to do is pick their candidate. The only people who will vote Republican are the die hards, and they would vote that anyway. The people who vote alternate parties depending on how they feel at the time (most of the nation) will not be voting Republican, even those with Republican sympathies for one reason: The Republicans waited too long. The die hards are sticking with the direction the country is going now, and that's fine. But even the moderates are fleeing like rats from a sinking ship, because they finally realized they are in danger of imminent political death. But for those who would have normally stuck with the Republicans, it's too little, too late. They waited far too long to leave; far too long to stand up and say, "You know what? I don't think I like the way this is going,"...all the leaving now smacks of what it is: saving your political butt, and even the thickest of Americans can see that.
I do think this election will lead to higher vote numbers for third party candidates (which I whole-heartedly support), but those numbers have been rising for the last 4 elections or so. More third party votes yes...but not a huge percentage, as most people who are looking for a new candidate are going to go with the Democrats, because there is enough of an atmosphere of fear about the future that most won't risk a vote on a candidate who doesn't have a chance.
Barring a major shift or crisis between now and the election, my prediction is massive swing of votes to the Democrats, who are going to walk away with this. A moderate upswing in the number of third party voters, but something in line with the increases in overall third party votes over the last few election cycles. After that, we return to the same crap as always...same problems that never get solved.
And personally, if George Carlin was on the ballot, I'd vote for him in a heart beat!
However, all of this amounts to nothing, because the Republicans will not win this election. They shouldn't even bother running a candidate, because there is no possible way that the nation will elect another Republican. The Democrats have this election locked up, all they have to do is pick their candidate. The only people who will vote Republican are the die hards, and they would vote that anyway. The people who vote alternate parties depending on how they feel at the time (most of the nation) will not be voting Republican, even those with Republican sympathies for one reason: The Republicans waited too long. The die hards are sticking with the direction the country is going now, and that's fine. But even the moderates are fleeing like rats from a sinking ship, because they finally realized they are in danger of imminent political death. But for those who would have normally stuck with the Republicans, it's too little, too late. They waited far too long to leave; far too long to stand up and say, "You know what? I don't think I like the way this is going,"...all the leaving now smacks of what it is: saving your political butt, and even the thickest of Americans can see that.
I do think this election will lead to higher vote numbers for third party candidates (which I whole-heartedly support), but those numbers have been rising for the last 4 elections or so. More third party votes yes...but not a huge percentage, as most people who are looking for a new candidate are going to go with the Democrats, because there is enough of an atmosphere of fear about the future that most won't risk a vote on a candidate who doesn't have a chance.
Barring a major shift or crisis between now and the election, my prediction is massive swing of votes to the Democrats, who are going to walk away with this. A moderate upswing in the number of third party voters, but something in line with the increases in overall third party votes over the last few election cycles. After that, we return to the same crap as always...same problems that never get solved.
And personally, if George Carlin was on the ballot, I'd vote for him in a heart beat!
How about Stewart/Colbert '08?
[QUOTE][QUOTENAME]Mr.Jingles wrote: [/QUOTENAME]How about Stewart/Colbert '08?[/QUOTE]
XD If THAT happened, I'd be willing to move to the US in a heartbeat :P
XD If THAT happened, I'd be willing to move to the US in a heartbeat :P
[QUOTE][QUOTENAME]HistoryGirl wrote: [/QUOTENAME]^^ I actually agree with you on a few things, Caspar. First off, it's a no brainer that Guiliani will get the Repubican nod...he's still a hero to many people for the way he handled 9-11 and he's cenrist enough in his party (pro-choice even) that he won't alienate the people who would normally not think of voting Republican.
However, all of this amounts to nothing, because the Republicans will not win this election. They shouldn't even bother running a candidate, because there is no possible way that the nation will elect another Republican. The Democrats have this election locked up, all they have to do is pick their candidate. The only people who will vote Republican are the die hards, and they would vote that anyway. The people who vote alternate parties depending on how they feel at the time (most of the nation) will not be voting Republican, even those with Republican sympathies for one reason: The Republicans waited too long. The die hards are sticking with the direction the country is going now, and that's fine. But even the moderates are fleeing like rats from a sinking ship, because they finally realized they are in danger of imminent political death. But for those who would have normally stuck with the Republicans, it's too little, too late. They waited far too long to leave; far too long to stand up and say, "You know what? I don't think I like the way this is going,"...all the leaving now smacks of what it is: saving your political butt, and even the thickest of Americans can see that.
I do think this election will lead to higher vote numbers for third party candidates (which I whole-heartedly support), but those numbers have been rising for the last 4 elections or so. More third party votes yes...but not a huge percentage, as most people who are looking for a new candidate are going to go with the Democrats, because there is enough of an atmosphere of fear about the future that most won't risk a vote on a candidate who doesn't have a chance.
Barring a major shift or crisis between now and the election, my prediction is massive swing of votes to the Democrats, who are going to walk away with this. A moderate upswing in the number of third party voters, but something in line with the increases in overall third party votes over the last few election cycles. After that, we return to the same crap as always...same problems that never get solved.
And personally, if George Carlin was on the ballot, I'd vote for him in a heart beat![/QUOTE]
I see your point, and it's perfectly sensible, but I'm afraid I can't rule out the Republicans winning myself. It's still a long campaign, and, as I've seen time and time again during Dutch elections, many people tend to forget their grievances with a party when it campaigns attractively. If the Republicans manage to ruin the democratic candidates reputation or perceived integrity (and its been done before, by both camps), they stand a good chance of gaining a large section of the doubting majority.
However, all of this amounts to nothing, because the Republicans will not win this election. They shouldn't even bother running a candidate, because there is no possible way that the nation will elect another Republican. The Democrats have this election locked up, all they have to do is pick their candidate. The only people who will vote Republican are the die hards, and they would vote that anyway. The people who vote alternate parties depending on how they feel at the time (most of the nation) will not be voting Republican, even those with Republican sympathies for one reason: The Republicans waited too long. The die hards are sticking with the direction the country is going now, and that's fine. But even the moderates are fleeing like rats from a sinking ship, because they finally realized they are in danger of imminent political death. But for those who would have normally stuck with the Republicans, it's too little, too late. They waited far too long to leave; far too long to stand up and say, "You know what? I don't think I like the way this is going,"...all the leaving now smacks of what it is: saving your political butt, and even the thickest of Americans can see that.
I do think this election will lead to higher vote numbers for third party candidates (which I whole-heartedly support), but those numbers have been rising for the last 4 elections or so. More third party votes yes...but not a huge percentage, as most people who are looking for a new candidate are going to go with the Democrats, because there is enough of an atmosphere of fear about the future that most won't risk a vote on a candidate who doesn't have a chance.
Barring a major shift or crisis between now and the election, my prediction is massive swing of votes to the Democrats, who are going to walk away with this. A moderate upswing in the number of third party voters, but something in line with the increases in overall third party votes over the last few election cycles. After that, we return to the same crap as always...same problems that never get solved.
And personally, if George Carlin was on the ballot, I'd vote for him in a heart beat![/QUOTE]
I see your point, and it's perfectly sensible, but I'm afraid I can't rule out the Republicans winning myself. It's still a long campaign, and, as I've seen time and time again during Dutch elections, many people tend to forget their grievances with a party when it campaigns attractively. If the Republicans manage to ruin the democratic candidates reputation or perceived integrity (and its been done before, by both camps), they stand a good chance of gaining a large section of the doubting majority.
[QUOTE][QUOTENAME]<b><font color = "crimson"> ThomasQuinn wrote: [/QUOTENAME] ...ruin the democratic candidates reputation or perceived integrity... [/QUOTE]
LOL!! No candidate - from either side - has a reputation worth keeping. And intergrity? LOL!
Thanks TQ. I know what you meant by all of that but man did it give me a laugh.
LOL!! No candidate - from either side - has a reputation worth keeping. And intergrity? LOL!
Thanks TQ. I know what you meant by all of that but man did it give me a laugh.
I'm never very good at predicting these things, but what ThomasQuinn said made sense to me. Also, I think it is the individual that wins, not the party.
I can see no feasible way that the Republicans can win this election, especially when the Dems have such strong candidates representing them this election (and the Republicans...well, they don't). Between Clinton, Obama, and Edwards (and perhaps long-shots Biden and Richardson), the lone Giuliani (and perhaps, but unlikely, Thompson) doesn't even stand a chance (plus, his name is too difficult to spell - I mean, President Giuliani? Come on!).
If the Pubs win this election, I will train pigs to fly.
My official prediction, on August 19, 2007:
2008 United States Presidential Election
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Rudy Giuliani (R)
Hillary wins about 55% to 45%.
If the Pubs win this election, I will train pigs to fly.
My official prediction, on August 19, 2007:
2008 United States Presidential Election
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Rudy Giuliani (R)
Hillary wins about 55% to 45%.
It all comes down to the Republicans reaping what they sow, Capsar. I understand what you have said, and we both know that a long campaign is ahead and it is possible that the Republicans will make gains; I agree with what you've said. However, I think it's too late for them to make enough gains to win the election. When things first started going downhill (mainly in Iraq, but with Katrina response and things like that as well) and the Democrats first started admitting that things were screwed up and they were now against the direction the country was going, the Republicans came out loudly and proudly. They were perfectly happy to paint themselves as "The True Americans" and the "True Patriots" while they painted the Democrats as "Un-American" and "Weak". This meant associating both the war and the direction of the country at the time as being one in the same with Republican ideas and ideologies, thus with the Republican party. When everything was going their way, that was fine.
But now the tables have turned. Health care is still a major issue, the immigration reform they touted so heavily has collapsed in Congress, Katrina is still an issue as thousands of poor continue to not receive assistance and Iraq is a bog. The Republicans who are deserting the party now are claiming that they are different, but that's not what they were saying when they were shouting about how they were the True American Party. Like it or not guys, you've gotta reap what you sow. If you associate your party with a set of good circumstances and policies, you've got to be prepared for the fact that when those circumstances and policies fall apart it will also be associated with your party. You can't claim that fighting terrorism in Iraq was your keystone, and then when it all goes to pot say, "Well, we didn't really mean that..."
The Republicans lost themselves this election when they decided to associate themselves so strongly with the policies of Bush. Now they want to claim shades of gray on an issue that they insisted at the time was black and white only, and expect the American people to buy it without a moment's hesitation.
Yeah right.
But now the tables have turned. Health care is still a major issue, the immigration reform they touted so heavily has collapsed in Congress, Katrina is still an issue as thousands of poor continue to not receive assistance and Iraq is a bog. The Republicans who are deserting the party now are claiming that they are different, but that's not what they were saying when they were shouting about how they were the True American Party. Like it or not guys, you've gotta reap what you sow. If you associate your party with a set of good circumstances and policies, you've got to be prepared for the fact that when those circumstances and policies fall apart it will also be associated with your party. You can't claim that fighting terrorism in Iraq was your keystone, and then when it all goes to pot say, "Well, we didn't really mean that..."
The Republicans lost themselves this election when they decided to associate themselves so strongly with the policies of Bush. Now they want to claim shades of gray on an issue that they insisted at the time was black and white only, and expect the American people to buy it without a moment's hesitation.
Yeah right.
I certainly hope you are right. However, I've seen first hand how weird life can go. We had a coalition government here, that was based around the (extremely) conservative Christian Democratic Party. It fell prematurely (though not so in the opinion of the people), with roughly 20% approval ratings towards the end. Then, campaigning starts, elections come...and the Dutch elect the VERY SAME PARTY, which in fact GAINED SEATS in the House!!!
Bottom line: people are easily misled.
To express most fully my views, I shall have to quote Mr. George Bernard Shaw:
"Democracy substitutes election by the incompetent many for appointment by the corrupt few."
Bottom line: people are easily misled.
To express most fully my views, I shall have to quote Mr. George Bernard Shaw:
"Democracy substitutes election by the incompetent many for appointment by the corrupt few."
I agree totally...people are misled easily. It's why we have the media.
Excellent quote, BTW...I'm not familiar with that one but will definately have to remember it.
I would seriously be shocked if the Republicans managed to win this election, and embarassed even further at America. But I'd be further pissed with the Democrats because they have it all right now. If they loose the election, it's because they actively lost it, not because of anything the Republicans did. If that manages to happen though, then my ideas about moving to Europe when I'm done with Masters Degree number 2 are going to become far more than just a wishful fantasy...LOL. I know you can't escape corruption and stupidity, but if I have to be surrounded by it I'd rather be surrounded by it in a place on this world that has beautiful museums, architecture, and long, rich cultures.
Excellent quote, BTW...I'm not familiar with that one but will definately have to remember it.
I would seriously be shocked if the Republicans managed to win this election, and embarassed even further at America. But I'd be further pissed with the Democrats because they have it all right now. If they loose the election, it's because they actively lost it, not because of anything the Republicans did. If that manages to happen though, then my ideas about moving to Europe when I'm done with Masters Degree number 2 are going to become far more than just a wishful fantasy...LOL. I know you can't escape corruption and stupidity, but if I have to be surrounded by it I'd rather be surrounded by it in a place on this world that has beautiful museums, architecture, and long, rich cultures.
[QUOTE][QUOTENAME]HistoryGirl wrote: [/QUOTENAME]I agree totally...people are misled easily. It's why we have the media.
Excellent quote, BTW...I'm not familiar with that one but will definately have to remember it.
I would seriously be shocked if the Republicans managed to win this election, and embarassed even further at America. But I'd be further pissed with the Democrats because they have it all right now. If they loose the election, it's because they actively lost it, not because of anything the Republicans did. If that manages to happen though, then my ideas about moving to Europe when I'm done with Masters Degree number 2 are going to become far more than just a wishful fantasy...LOL. I know you can't escape corruption and stupidity, but if I have to be surrounded by it I'd rather be surrounded by it in a place on this world that has beautiful museums, architecture, and long, rich cultures. [/QUOTE]
Beautiful museums whose subsidies shrink faster than polar ice, architecture slowly crumbling for want of maintenance, and long, violent wars.
I'm afraid that Europe is withering just as much as the US. It's the "Zeitgeist" I fear, that people seem to be losing interest by the day.
Don't get me wrong, I like Europe, but we too are an empire returning to sand. Sic transit gloria mundi. All we really need is a wave of positive thinking, but people seem unwilling to make the effort.
Excellent quote, BTW...I'm not familiar with that one but will definately have to remember it.
I would seriously be shocked if the Republicans managed to win this election, and embarassed even further at America. But I'd be further pissed with the Democrats because they have it all right now. If they loose the election, it's because they actively lost it, not because of anything the Republicans did. If that manages to happen though, then my ideas about moving to Europe when I'm done with Masters Degree number 2 are going to become far more than just a wishful fantasy...LOL. I know you can't escape corruption and stupidity, but if I have to be surrounded by it I'd rather be surrounded by it in a place on this world that has beautiful museums, architecture, and long, rich cultures. [/QUOTE]
Beautiful museums whose subsidies shrink faster than polar ice, architecture slowly crumbling for want of maintenance, and long, violent wars.
I'm afraid that Europe is withering just as much as the US. It's the "Zeitgeist" I fear, that people seem to be losing interest by the day.
Don't get me wrong, I like Europe, but we too are an empire returning to sand. Sic transit gloria mundi. All we really need is a wave of positive thinking, but people seem unwilling to make the effort.