GratefulFan
http://live.reuters.com/Event/Japan_earthquake2
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GratefulFan
Sorry for multiple posts and dumb format. Posting from iPad is an absurd and highly limited process.
YourValentine
I cannot believe you are talking about "premature catastrophizing", GF. This accident is exactly what our polticians kept telling us would never happen. Oh yes - in the former Soviet Union a bad accident could happen because they did not have the security standards but in Japan and Europe - never. Because we have all these redundant cooling processes which simply cannot fail. Now radiation is already measured in Tokyo and it has nothing to do with the natural radiation you mention - we are talking about hazardous nuclear fission products.
The scenario that a reactor explodes and the container is blown off was always called "highly speculative", oppoonents of the nuclear technology were blamed of scare tactics. Now the people in Japan have to pay a bitter, horrible price for the wrong policy of their governments. On TV Chancellor Merkel yesterday called off her (probably unconstitutional) law to prolong the running time of old reactors in light of upcoming state elections.. All of a sudden security gets the highest priority and we have to wonder why that has not been the case last week. Whoever supports nuclear power after the last days is guilty of endangering millions and millions of people.
The scenario that a reactor explodes and the container is blown off was always called "highly speculative", oppoonents of the nuclear technology were blamed of scare tactics. Now the people in Japan have to pay a bitter, horrible price for the wrong policy of their governments. On TV Chancellor Merkel yesterday called off her (probably unconstitutional) law to prolong the running time of old reactors in light of upcoming state elections.. All of a sudden security gets the highest priority and we have to wonder why that has not been the case last week. Whoever supports nuclear power after the last days is guilty of endangering millions and millions of people.
thomasquinn 32989
Some two hours ago, the Dutch NOS news service interviewed professor Wim Turkenburg of Utrecht University, the leading expert on nuclear technology in the Netherlands. I am including some of the most important points he made in the eight-minute interview:
- Meltdown: Reactor 2 (the one that exploded last night) had been completely dry for at least several hours, with internal temperatures over 2000 degrees Centigrade. This means it is ridiculous to assume that a meltdown has *not* occurred. I repeat: a meltdown *has* occurred. The question now is whether the molten fuel will reach critical mass again and continue to heat up, which is fortunately far from a sure thing.
- Radiation: 400 milisievert per hour around the plant. On top of ordinary background radiation, the safe exposure for a normal civilian is 1 milisievert per year. For workers in the nuclear industry the absolute maximum that may not be exceeded is 50 milisievert per year. Radiation levels in Tokio are easily high enough to be considered dangerous.
- Danger to employees: the people (about 50) still working at Fukishima are, in his words "heroes". He added that they are almost certainly going to die.
- Meltdown: Reactor 2 (the one that exploded last night) had been completely dry for at least several hours, with internal temperatures over 2000 degrees Centigrade. This means it is ridiculous to assume that a meltdown has *not* occurred. I repeat: a meltdown *has* occurred. The question now is whether the molten fuel will reach critical mass again and continue to heat up, which is fortunately far from a sure thing.
- Radiation: 400 milisievert per hour around the plant. On top of ordinary background radiation, the safe exposure for a normal civilian is 1 milisievert per year. For workers in the nuclear industry the absolute maximum that may not be exceeded is 50 milisievert per year. Radiation levels in Tokio are easily high enough to be considered dangerous.
- Danger to employees: the people (about 50) still working at Fukishima are, in his words "heroes". He added that they are almost certainly going to die.
thomasquinn 32989
****UPDATE****
The International Atomic Energy Agency has just announced, through André-Claude Lacoste, director of the French ASN, that the Fukishima I Nuclear Power Plant disaster has been upgraded from 4 to 6 on the INES-scale (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale)
This is *extremely serious*. It suggests that something really terrible is about to happen. It is likely that all remaining workers will have to be evacuated, meaning nothing further can be done to prevent disasters.
Level 6 on the INES scale is virtually unprecedented: the only Level 6 ever to occur was the Kyshtym disaster in the Soviet Union in 1957 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyshtym_disaster). Until today, that was ranked as the second worst nuclear disaster ever to happen, second only to Tchernobyl.
The International Atomic Energy Agency has just announced, through André-Claude Lacoste, director of the French ASN, that the Fukishima I Nuclear Power Plant disaster has been upgraded from 4 to 6 on the INES-scale (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale)
This is *extremely serious*. It suggests that something really terrible is about to happen. It is likely that all remaining workers will have to be evacuated, meaning nothing further can be done to prevent disasters.
Level 6 on the INES scale is virtually unprecedented: the only Level 6 ever to occur was the Kyshtym disaster in the Soviet Union in 1957 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyshtym_disaster). Until today, that was ranked as the second worst nuclear disaster ever to happen, second only to Tchernobyl.
YourValentine
It's just out of control, a terribile nightmare. Millions of people in danger and this time we cannot close our eyes - it is live on TV. Not like the pre-internet (and cold-war) days of Chernobyl where 7 million people are still live in highly contaminated areas. Areas where hardly any children are healthy.
GratefulFan
YourValentine wrote: I cannot believe you are talking about "premature catastrophizing", GF. This accident is exactly what our polticians kept telling us would never happen. Oh yes - in the former Soviet Union a bad accident could happen because they did not have the security standards but in Japan and Europe - never. Because we have all these redundant cooling processes which simply cannot fail. Now radiation is already measured in Tokyo and it has nothing to do with the natural radiation you mention - we are talking about hazardous nuclear fission products.
The scenario that a reactor explodes and the container is blown off was always called "highly speculative", oppoonents of the nuclear technology were blamed of scare tactics. Now the people in Japan have to pay a bitter, horrible price for the wrong policy of their governments. On TV Chancellor Merkel yesterday called off her (probably unconstitutional) law to prolong the running time of old reactors in light of upcoming state elections.. All of a sudden security gets the highest priority and we have to wonder why that has not been the case last week. Whoever supports nuclear power after the last days is guilty of endangering millions and millions of people.
=========================
I'm not trying to minimize events YV, I just like facts. It's been a generation since Three Mile Island and Chernobyl, and whether you think it's complacency or reality that has isolated those events from global nuclear energy policy, the fact is most of us live in a nuclear world that is quietly humming along. One consequence of that is that the press is largely unprepared to properly parse the data coming out of Japan, so amid the competetive pressure for constant news and compelling headlines they collectively throw out streams of largely meaningless relative numbers and repeat hours old assessments as breaking news. Radiation '10 times normal' means *nothing* without context and absolute numbers. A temporary spike in radiation capable of harming human health at the gate of the plant means nothing to Tokyo if it is not sustained. 'Natural radiation' is not a synonym for granola. There is significant biological tolerance for ranges of exposure far greater than any of the absolute figures published outside the immediate evacuated radius of the plant at this time.
Clearly this may become a nightmarish scenario, but it's no service to the Japanese people to make it one in the press and global chatter before it is. In fact, it's extraordinarily cruel given their particular history. Cool heads make the best decisions. We can certainly agree that it is absurd for politicians to be writing nuclear policy on the fly in the middle of an unfolding black swan nuclear crisis half a world away, but we'd likely agree for different reasons.
The scenario that a reactor explodes and the container is blown off was always called "highly speculative", oppoonents of the nuclear technology were blamed of scare tactics. Now the people in Japan have to pay a bitter, horrible price for the wrong policy of their governments. On TV Chancellor Merkel yesterday called off her (probably unconstitutional) law to prolong the running time of old reactors in light of upcoming state elections.. All of a sudden security gets the highest priority and we have to wonder why that has not been the case last week. Whoever supports nuclear power after the last days is guilty of endangering millions and millions of people.
=========================
I'm not trying to minimize events YV, I just like facts. It's been a generation since Three Mile Island and Chernobyl, and whether you think it's complacency or reality that has isolated those events from global nuclear energy policy, the fact is most of us live in a nuclear world that is quietly humming along. One consequence of that is that the press is largely unprepared to properly parse the data coming out of Japan, so amid the competetive pressure for constant news and compelling headlines they collectively throw out streams of largely meaningless relative numbers and repeat hours old assessments as breaking news. Radiation '10 times normal' means *nothing* without context and absolute numbers. A temporary spike in radiation capable of harming human health at the gate of the plant means nothing to Tokyo if it is not sustained. 'Natural radiation' is not a synonym for granola. There is significant biological tolerance for ranges of exposure far greater than any of the absolute figures published outside the immediate evacuated radius of the plant at this time.
Clearly this may become a nightmarish scenario, but it's no service to the Japanese people to make it one in the press and global chatter before it is. In fact, it's extraordinarily cruel given their particular history. Cool heads make the best decisions. We can certainly agree that it is absurd for politicians to be writing nuclear policy on the fly in the middle of an unfolding black swan nuclear crisis half a world away, but we'd likely agree for different reasons.
GratefulFan
ThomasQuinn wrote: ****UPDATE****
The International Atomic Energy Agency has just announced, through André-Claude Lacoste, director of the French ASN, that the Fukishima I Nuclear Power Plant disaster has been upgraded from 4 to 6 on the INES-scale (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale)
This is *extremely serious*. It suggests that something really terrible is about to happen. It is likely that all remaining workers will have to be evacuated, meaning nothing further can be done to prevent disasters.
Level 6 on the INES scale is virtually unprecedented: the only Level 6 ever to occur was the Kyshtym disaster in the Soviet Union in 1957 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyshtym_disaster). Until today, that was ranked as the second worst nuclear disaster ever to happen, second only to Tchernobyl.
=============================
That was not an IAEA announcement as far as I know. It was an independent French assessment. Yesterday they estimated it at a 'five or a six' (Japan has assigned a value of 4 previously). Today they're calling it a more solid six. Chernobyl was a 7, and Three Mile Island was a 5. There was no impact on human health in the Three Mile Island event, so that relativism needs to be understood in context. 'Second only to Chernobyl' means about as much now as 'just slightly ahead of Three Mile Island'. Again, I'm not trying to minimize the events or their real world and psychological impact, but you're ahead of yourselves. The whole thing could utterly implode in 15 minutes, and you still would have been ahead of yourself right now.
The International Atomic Energy Agency has just announced, through André-Claude Lacoste, director of the French ASN, that the Fukishima I Nuclear Power Plant disaster has been upgraded from 4 to 6 on the INES-scale (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale)
This is *extremely serious*. It suggests that something really terrible is about to happen. It is likely that all remaining workers will have to be evacuated, meaning nothing further can be done to prevent disasters.
Level 6 on the INES scale is virtually unprecedented: the only Level 6 ever to occur was the Kyshtym disaster in the Soviet Union in 1957 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyshtym_disaster). Until today, that was ranked as the second worst nuclear disaster ever to happen, second only to Tchernobyl.
=============================
That was not an IAEA announcement as far as I know. It was an independent French assessment. Yesterday they estimated it at a 'five or a six' (Japan has assigned a value of 4 previously). Today they're calling it a more solid six. Chernobyl was a 7, and Three Mile Island was a 5. There was no impact on human health in the Three Mile Island event, so that relativism needs to be understood in context. 'Second only to Chernobyl' means about as much now as 'just slightly ahead of Three Mile Island'. Again, I'm not trying to minimize the events or their real world and psychological impact, but you're ahead of yourselves. The whole thing could utterly implode in 15 minutes, and you still would have been ahead of yourself right now.
YourValentine
I really do not want to be impolite, GF because I do respect you but you clearly have no clue what you are talking about.
There is an ongoing meltdown in two reactors. The crew has left the plant to escape the deadly radiation. The radiation at the moment is 400 times the allowed ANNUAL radiation, it is lethal. In acts of sheer desparation the left 50 technicians try to cool down the melting reactors from helicopters with sea water - how they can stop the process when 750 technicians could not do it yesterday is everybody's guess.
Each of the melting reactors contains 20 times as much reactor fuel as did the Chernobyl reactor, i.e. 20 times as much radiation can escape into the environment - the catastrophe will be much worse than Chernobyl.
The radiation has already spread over the Tokyo area, which means that over 30 million people(!!) are in very urgent danger of contamination. I do not want to elaborate about the possible consequences, everybody can imagine what might happen. This is the worst catastrophe that ever happened to any country, the effects will last decades to come, maybe centuries.
Today Germany switched off the 7 oldest reactors in the country. The people of Germany will make sure that they won't return, I am very sure about that and we will make sure that nuclear energy will be ended in our country as soon as possible. It's not because we are a bunch of paranoid idiots, we just see what is happening and there must be an end to this insanity.
There is an ongoing meltdown in two reactors. The crew has left the plant to escape the deadly radiation. The radiation at the moment is 400 times the allowed ANNUAL radiation, it is lethal. In acts of sheer desparation the left 50 technicians try to cool down the melting reactors from helicopters with sea water - how they can stop the process when 750 technicians could not do it yesterday is everybody's guess.
Each of the melting reactors contains 20 times as much reactor fuel as did the Chernobyl reactor, i.e. 20 times as much radiation can escape into the environment - the catastrophe will be much worse than Chernobyl.
The radiation has already spread over the Tokyo area, which means that over 30 million people(!!) are in very urgent danger of contamination. I do not want to elaborate about the possible consequences, everybody can imagine what might happen. This is the worst catastrophe that ever happened to any country, the effects will last decades to come, maybe centuries.
Today Germany switched off the 7 oldest reactors in the country. The people of Germany will make sure that they won't return, I am very sure about that and we will make sure that nuclear energy will be ended in our country as soon as possible. It's not because we are a bunch of paranoid idiots, we just see what is happening and there must be an end to this insanity.
GratefulFan
I have every clue about what I'm talking about. We simply disagree about what the imminent dangers are given the current facts on the ground. That all may change. I'm sure we can both agree that we desperately hope for the best for the Japanese people.
ParisNair
I feel for the Japanese, I really do. Of all the peoples in the world, why they have to suffer like this, I cannot understand. A peaceful, friendly people and culture. Come to think of it, I don't wish such thing to happen even to Pakistanis, who I really hate.
Any amount of empathy, sympathy, medical and financial aid is of no use in what has happened/is happening there. The people will have to suffer for generations. Japan, of all countries....:-(
Any amount of empathy, sympathy, medical and financial aid is of no use in what has happened/is happening there. The people will have to suffer for generations. Japan, of all countries....:-(
YourValentine
GratefulFan wrote: I have every clue about what I'm talking about. We simply disagree about what the imminent dangers are given the current facts on the ground. That all may change. I'm sure we can both agree that we desperately hope for the best for the Japanese people.
Yes, we agree about that. I just happen to believe that it does not help the people of Japan if we do not call a nuclear meltdown a nuclear meltdown and if we do not call a catastrophe a catastrophe. Lies and euphemisms have lead us to the situation that in so many industrialized countries people have been kept in the dark about the danger of nuclear power. If TEPCO had not been allowed to lie to the Japanese people the way they did - maybe Japan would have changed their energy politics years ago? It may be very late for the Japanese people but it is not too late for Europe and other industrialized countries. They tell us that we cannot "abuse" the catastrophe in Japan to promote anti-nuclear actions but that is just the cynical way of the lobbyists to lay the blame somewhere else. I read on the internet - and I do not know if it's true - that the IAEA does not even use the word "meltdown" to describe the biggest possible accident anywhere in their writings and that President Obama recently called an energy mix containing nuclear energy and even coal "clean energy". There must be an end to this "nukespeak". Right now we see the reactors exploding on our TV screens and people all of a sudden realize that "residual risk" may well mean the total destruction of their homeland - not only for themselves but for generations to come.
Yes, we agree about that. I just happen to believe that it does not help the people of Japan if we do not call a nuclear meltdown a nuclear meltdown and if we do not call a catastrophe a catastrophe. Lies and euphemisms have lead us to the situation that in so many industrialized countries people have been kept in the dark about the danger of nuclear power. If TEPCO had not been allowed to lie to the Japanese people the way they did - maybe Japan would have changed their energy politics years ago? It may be very late for the Japanese people but it is not too late for Europe and other industrialized countries. They tell us that we cannot "abuse" the catastrophe in Japan to promote anti-nuclear actions but that is just the cynical way of the lobbyists to lay the blame somewhere else. I read on the internet - and I do not know if it's true - that the IAEA does not even use the word "meltdown" to describe the biggest possible accident anywhere in their writings and that President Obama recently called an energy mix containing nuclear energy and even coal "clean energy". There must be an end to this "nukespeak". Right now we see the reactors exploding on our TV screens and people all of a sudden realize that "residual risk" may well mean the total destruction of their homeland - not only for themselves but for generations to come.
GratefulFan
Expecting the IAEA to use the word 'meltdown' in their formal writings is like expecting WHO to use the word 'pukey'. It's an informal and imprecise word that is not appropriate for that level of discourse. As I wrote earlier, the middle of an unfolding crisis with an uncertain end is not in my opinion the right mental and emotional climate for discussion and decisions (!) on energy policy.
thomasquinn 32989
I find the announcement by the company that owns and operates the Fukushima plant that 70% of fuel rods in Reactor 1 and about 33% of the fuel rods in Reactor 2 are damaged direct and explicit enough.
Donna13
I guess it is the simple things that can bring down a system. The fact that they had the backup generators in the basement of this complex even though they are at the edge of the ocean and everyone knows that a tsunami is possible and even expected eventually in an area with a lot of potential for big earthquakes ... that is a surprisingly simple mistake they made. It reminds me of the heat shield tile breaking off of the shuttle and nobody bothering to check on that prior to reentry. Or the o-ring - some engineers were concerned that it might fail at low temperatures, but nothing was done in time to stop the launch. Or how about the Toyota floor mats?